tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC January 17, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EST
dow futures surging in the premarket. will wall street hold on to those gains today? bitcoin battered the cryptocurrency tumbling in early trade. we'll find out what's driving that lower. shutdown showdown. the clock is ticking for congress to pass a spending bill the latest on where things stand. it's wednesday, january 17, 2018 "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm morgan brennan in for
sara isen. >> great to have you here. it's been a tight setup this morning. thanks for the team getting us on air just about in time. let's check in on the markets. this time yesterday we were looking at a 250-point gain in the premarket. indeed we were up around a percent at the hoopen for the dw the dow was up 283 points at one point but ended the day lower. around lunch time we went from up about a percent on the dow to end the day lower. a massive intraday selloff 6.5 billion shares traded. the average is around 5 billion. a big intraday turnaround this morning up 176 markets on the premarket for the dow, 34 for the nasdaq it will be fornt see those gains maintained throughout the course of today let's look at bitcoin.
today it's down again. it's around the 10,000 mark once again. sticking with traditional currencies, we have some strength in the dollar today keep in mind that dollar index is still hovering near three-year lows. the euro level right now is 1.22 the u.s. yen, 110.73 the pound 1.3797 a lot of the focus here with the dollar being as weak as it is, it's that as we have tax reform and that adds to the deficit that is going to continue to potentially pressure the dollar. >> let's look at asian equities or ten-year treasury note. 2.557. asian equities for you, they were very strong yesterday they didn't have an intraday selloff at all hong kong up about 2%. today a mixed picture.
hong kong and shanghai higher. nikkei slightly lower. european trade for you, let's look at that it is slightly negative today. italy holding on to slight gains. other markets are down we did have eurozone cpi for december, 1.4% that is what it was estimated to be it was 1.4% the prior month as well the month before that, it was 1.5 it did tick down last month. it held where it is at 1.4% in line with estimates. we also had slightly dovish comments coming from vice president constancio overnight at the moment the hawks have been winning over with the euro pushing up to three-year highs but pulling back in the last couple of hours. >> looking at commodities, red arrows for crude, wti crude, 63.62.
ice brent crude, 68.94 after hitting that $70 mark earlier in the week keep in mind just yesterday wti hitting its highest level since late 2014. we'll have those inventory numbers out again this week. a lot of the focus here is on u.s. production and whether we hit the record levels that are anticipated in the coming days and weeks. looking at gold now, we have gold at 1336 per ounce, that's down fractionally. this after gold hit the highest level since september on the back of that weaker dollar index yesterday. >> let's get more on the early market action. joining us on the cnbc news line, guy adami. big selloff yesterday, we're back high in the premarket again. how important is it to see those gains hold through to the close today? >> it's extraordinarily
important. yesterday was one of the most interesting days we had in a couple years february 10, 2016, if you recall that, they had a huge selloff on the s&p. traded down to 1810. closed higher on the day over the last two years we never looked back. what was interesting yesterday, among many things, is the fact the dow was up a couple hundred points but the volatility index was higher all day yesterday didn't open lower and close higher it opened higher and closed higher, one of the first times you've seen that one of my contentions is the short-term top will be put on the ektiquities market and the x traded higher yesterday. >> 2017 was not the year of volatility is this the beginning of more of that and more of these bigger swings in the stock market >> it should be. you brought that up. it's important, so much complacency has gotten into the market people used to use the
volatility index to protect portfolios, they would say why do we need to bother now you've seen not only do people not buy it, but they sell volatility because they say the market never goes down so they're looking to create synthetic dividends. you have complacency the market sets up eerily to the market we talked about on february 10th. so volatility will be here to stay it should be given everything we've seen geopolitically in the world. >> what were the sparks yesterday that caused the selloff? any big factors you can point to >> people talking about president trump and bannon talking and speaking out, maybe he has something to say that nobody is anticipating you know this we've seen headlines similar to that for years now the market is impervious i can't point to one thing i will tell you it's interesting that you're seeing rates starting to rise, a weaker u.s.
dollar a lot of strange things going on in the market. you would think, by the way, that if rates start to rise, the dollar rises as well a weaker dollar is a tailwind for stocks, but at a certain point a weaker dollar is not necessarily a good thing so you have seen all kinds of funky crosswinds, i guess, to put it mildly in the marketplace now. >> you keep taking my questions out of my mouth and answering them. >> that's what i do. it's 5:00 in the morning, i anticipate i'm a smart person >> you are i'm excited to talk to you this morning at this hour just to dig into this dollar conversation more. i'm hearing more and more this idea for the potential of runaway inflation. the idea that rates rise faster than everybody is expecting, the dollar stays weak what will that do to inflation what is your take on that >> be careful what you wish for. the fed has said for quite some time that's what they want and covet, higher inflation, but that's a difficult genie to let out of the bottle.
they think they contain inflation, it's like trying to contain arsenal. what is your football team >> roma for you. >> guy, quick final question on bitcoin. >> you final what i'm saying, you can't control it >> quick final question on bitcoin in terms of down again today. start of a big selloff for that as well? >> i will say this it's a coin flip a lot of people think a selloff in bitcoin could lead to a potential selloff in the marketplace. we had an analyst from wells fargo on yesterday saying don't discount the fact that if bitcoin were to unravel here, it could create havoc in the equities market. i'm not certain i believe that i don't think krcrypto is big enough to cause systemic risk, but some think it will be. >> guy, you said yourself you're so smart >> i am. it's 5:00
>> guy, thank you very much for joining us >> love you both sticking with bitcoin, it's under pressure again this morning following yesterday's major selloff. what's behind the crypto slide let's get to arjun with more >> it's regulation, regulation, that's spooking the market yesterday and in the early hours of trade this morning. china's talk about potentially banning some of those centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and south korea is in talks about introducing a bill that could ban some of those cryptocurrency exchanges nothing has been decided yet that's done enough to wipe nearly 2$200 billion off the cryptocurrency market. in a few hours some of that has recovered. bitcoin is off around 45% from the all-time high. ethereum after about 30% ripple around 70%. considering many of these coins saw somewhere in the region of several thousand percent surges
in the year last year, that seems like a splaul drmall drope ocean. the next few days will be clear and crucial in determining if there is a permanent downturn or a short-term blip. perhaps some of those alternative coins do get some support as bitcoin goes down but 2018 will be a year that regulators firmly have the cryptocurrency market in their cross hairs. back to you. >> arjun, thank you very much for that it will be an area of focus again today. big move lower yesterday in bitcoin. still ahead on "worldwide exchange." shares of juno therapeutics up some 45% we'll tell you why later, shutdown showdown the clock is ticking on congress to pass a spending bill. we're live in washington as we head to break, another check on futures
that happen today? important for bullish sentiment that it does maintain these gapes that we're seeing gape gapes gains that we're seeing today. bitcoin is down again today, to the mid 10,000 level for bitcoin. a pair of economic reports on today's wall street agenda. industrial production is out at 9:15 eastern followed by the international home builders survey at 10:00 p.m. we'll hear from the fed today at 2:00 p.m we have bank of america, goldman sachs and u.s. bancorp before the bell after the bell, we'll hear from alcoa. wilf what will you be looking for from the banks >> tax rates, citi's tax rate came out at 25%. wells fargo and jpmorgan came out at 19% we expect bank of america to come in at 21. goldman sachs could be just
below that level, in the high teens. for goldman sachs, the key thing is trading the last couple quarters they significantly underperformed their peers. looking at down mid teen percent year on year based on what some others have reported if goldman sachs does worse than that, it's a continuation of that recent theme. it's about 37% of their total ree revenue, and costs will be important for both on the bank of america side, we look for deposit beaters you kind of look at things that could derail that positivity, one is looking to pay that big consumer base more money in terms of deposits. so far deposit beaters have been low. we'll look to see whether that continues or not bank of america the clear
out-performer, and goldman sachs one of the clear underperformers. be interesting to see if they can turn around. >> 6:45, bank of america i forget when goldman sachs is, after that shares of juno therapeutics soaring on deal talk landon dowdy has more on that. shares of juno therapeutics moving higher. reports that celgene is in talks to buy the company cnbc reached out but juno declined to comment. celgene also announced they would buy impact pharmaceuticals, they could both impact celgene's blood market. analysts expect more therapies in the space will bring in billions of dollars of shares.
sales of juno speaking 30% initially. up about 45% in early trading. celgene is unchanged >> thank you very much for that. ford expects to report lower operating profit this year currency headwinds and high commodity costs are offsetting gains. boeing is forming a joint venture with adient to design and build airplane seats as demand has outplaced supply in recent years the joint venture will base its headquarters and plant near frankfurt, germany boeing, please create room for someone who is 6'5". adient down 4% csx fourth quarter profit beat forecasts but the company reported a bigger than expected drop in revenue. the railroad operator lost some business caused by the turnaround plan of former ceo
hunter harrison. harrison passed away in december csx down a percent what's the key takeaway? >> they have a new ceo he says he has been getting on planes, meeting can muwith custs to get them back on the railroad second half of this year, revenues will pick up as the company continues to implement this precision scheduled railroading model that hunter harrison was so famous more. they expect to cut another 2,000 jobs, sell tracks. this is a company that continues to be in flux. one of the most interesting takeaways for me was that coal was as strong as it was. they said it was a healthy market export coal volumes increased 37% in the fourth quarter. >> is that following many years of declines? >> coal has been on a decline for many years
that has been the case, continues to be the case, but maybe some stabilization with this weaker dollar, with more demand in places like asia we seem to be turning out coal and sending it to other parts of the world now. >> csx off about a percent more stocks to watch interactive brokers reported a surprise fourth quarter loss but revenue beat forecasts the brokerage firm says the effects of the new u.s. tax law recreas decreased earnings per share by 3 cents. asml had better than expected fourth quarter profits. they see a strong 2018 thanks to a growing backlog of orders. asml says several customers are asking for early delivery. shares of burberry are down sharply today after the luxury retailer reported disappointing holiday sales. the ceo outlined a plan last year to take the company up
market, but there would be little operating profit until fiscal 2021. those shares are down almost 8%. lawmakers have until midnight friday to pass a spending bill and keep the lights on in washington. we're live in d.c. with the latest. but first, as we head to break, here's the national weather forecast from nbc's bill karins good wednesday morning to you. still watching winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings covering 68 million people mostly the east coast and areas around houston it's done snowing and sleeting in the houston area, but they're still so cold. they want people to be careful on the roads right now it's snowed once again for the third time this winter in the florida panpanhandle. we are seeing minor accumulations, slick road conditions throughout alabama, georgia and getting that into the upstate of south carolina. the heaviest snows today will be up to south carolina, two
inches, charlotte, possibility of an inch or two. raleigh, three to four inches. interior sections of the northeast will get an additional one to two inches. many areas have one to three inches on the ground new york down to philadelphia, you may see some snowflakes, but temperatures are too warm, roads are fine boston not too bad temperatures there have been mild only minor problems in the suburbs. that's your business travel forecast more "worldwide exchange" when we come back
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the market action today. we have u.s. equity futures pointing to a higher open now. the dow is poised to open up 151 points the s&p 500 up 11 points the nasdaq up 30 points. this after a roller coaster day for u.s. stocks yesterday with the dow up 283 points, crossing that 26,000 mark before falling 100 points and ending the day lower by 10 points similar story for the s&p. ultimately slipping below that and also ended the day down 10 points turning to bitcoin, cryptocurrencies have been under pressure over the last 24 hours. if you look, it's red arrows for those bitcoin contracts today as well after bitcoin fell below
the $10,000 level yesterday on coin base. the cboe futures contracts for bitcoin expire today, the first ones the clock is ticking the countdown to shutdown in congress lawmakers have until midnight friday to pass a spending bill and avoid a government shutdown. let's get to tracie potts live in washington with all of the details of what's to come over the next two days, 18 hours, 34 minutes, 53 seconds. >> those details that we know. because it's not even clear that lawmakers can come up with something to vote on before that friday deadline. the hang up is democrats insisting that daca, protection for undocumented immigrants brought here as children be dealt with as part of this budget negotiation democrats and republicans came up with something they thought would work the president said if they came up with something he would sign it when they presented it, he said no, it was not enough support
for the military so he rejected it. that has put them back at square one. a couple things complicating things, president trump's alleged vulgar comment about haiti and african nations. he denies it here on capitol hill it has scuttled those negotiations to some degree as they try to meet this deadline. also the u.s. supreme court may be getting involved. the trump administration now asking them to completely skip an appeals court and reverse a federal judge's decision so the president can roll back those daca protections in march. a federal judge said no, the president has to abandon that plan for now they're trying to fight that quickly by escalating it to the u.s. supreme court and skipping the step of going through the appeals court. lots of things happening overnight the conservative freedom caucus, members of that group said they will not support
a short-term budget extension again. there's some effort in the house to get that up for a vote. but if they can't get enough republican votes, that's not going to happen either bottom line, we are up in the air as to what will happen between now and that deadline friday >> which is two days, 18 hours, 32 minutes away. 33 now 32 there we go. tracie potts, thank you very much for that. still ahead a round up of the top headlines. plus more on the crypto carnage. and a look at the futures. yesterday it didn't hold will it hold today we'll be back in a couple minutes. gives you more. with speeds up to 20 times faster than the average. that means powering more devices, more video conferencing, and more downloads in seconds, not minutes. get fast internet and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more per month. comcast is building america's
the dow pointing to a triple digit gain following yesterday's late-session selloff. and crypto smackdown bitcoin tumbling again this morning. and breaking up is hard to do why a ge split could give investors a splitting headache it's wednesday, january 17, 2018 you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost. >> yesterday we were up about 250 points at the highs of
yesterday's actual session, we were up 280 points on the dow, but the dow ended lower. a turnaround of 1% for all three indices. the nasdaq just below -- excuse me, the dow below the flat line, the nasdaq down a half percent volume picked up as well at 6.8 billion shares traded, the 50-day moving average closer to 5 billion we're higher this morning. 154 points on the dow, 30 on the nasdaq, 11 on the s&p will it hold is the question >> ten-year note, around the mid 2.5 level this week. 2.555. >> that 2.6 level, everybody is watching and waiting for it. turning to asian equities. a mixed picture in terms of the session there. the nikkei dropped nearly 0.4% keep in mind it's still near a 26-year high the hang seng was the
out-performer up about a quarter of a percent the shanghai composite also up about a quarter percent. the kospi was down a quarter percent. if we turn to europe as well, we have seen largely red arrows across the board that continues now the dax is down about 0.4% the cac, ftse 100 both down a quarter percent. a look at oil prices, they did just give up some ground yesterday. about 0.9% that broke a five-day winning streak losing another third of a percent today. they have been on a tear upwards recently dollar board for you, the euro hit a fresh three-year high overnight. it's now down 0.15%. we had some relatively bearish -- dovish comments from vice president constancio about the strength of the euro and we had inflation data, 1.4%, which was expected
bitcoin for you which had a tumble yesterday, it is down again today. down about 10% today at about 10,300. sticking with bitcoin, timing is everything traders and investors are hyper aware of how returns are affected by getting in and out at the right time. when it comes to the volatility around bitcoin, it's been a winning lottery ticket or a widowmaker of a trade. >> it's amazing. when i left last night, bitcoin was around 11,500. we showed the prices, 10,200, 10,300 so we decided to look at the returns that you would have had if you invested in certain time periods. you can see, if you held it for the past three, five years you made out like a bandit here's the interesting part. growth of $10,000, it's a metric that a lot of mutual fund managers like to use how much would it grow overtime. if you had invested three years ago in bitcoin, would have about
$460,000 today on a $10,000 investment over a year you're looking good. $10,000 has become around $125,000 if you invested near the highs of bitcoin, back when it was approaching $20,000, just about a month or so ago, you're 40% in the red. that $10,000 has become $6,000 i want to put that in contrast to the s&p 500 not because we're saying their apples to apples, but a lot of people look at these as comparable investments three years in the s&p 500 spider etf undividend adjusted, not that big of a difference, three years, that's 13,700 not shabby over the past sun year, 12,200 you're actually ahead still if you invested at the bitcoin highs in mid-december, still 4 0
bucks aheaahead. people will talk about sharp ratios, how much you get for the unit of risk you take. bitcoin is massive in risk and reward the s&p 500 used to be thought of as the riskiest i investment out there, all in stocks >> do we have a sharp ratio comparison >> we could do it, but we don't have enough yearly information on bitcoin to make a yearly determination. you could do daily returns to see what they're like, even then that speaks to a bigger problem with bitcoin in the decentralized market data we have, it's hard to find clear, transparent data that can give that you had much information. >> we also don't know which price to go off. >> correct >> is it bit stamp, coin base? >> on top of that, we were talking about yesterday in the s&p and dow about how volatility picked up. so far there's not a way to play
purely the volatility of bitcoin that would have been a phenomenal investment. >> is there a bit vix? >> a bit vix or something. if we do get one that would be a winner, which ever way the prices go. >> you may find it will be a subject of maturity in the marketplace. right now we're a couple months into a futures trading program, nasdaq will get in on it early this year. we don't have that much trading volume on it when do you start -- you see futures, they're not that much a part of the market yet if you see options develop on those futures, more derivatives markets, more trading volumes, maybe you could derive a real significant way to measure volatility around bitcoin prices >> just quickly as well, the selloff yesterday in equities, was there correlation in timing between bitcoin selloff and equities >> they were unrelated we knew there were driving forces behind why bitcoin moved
lower. whether or not you agree with the interpretation of what's happening in south korea with the finance ministry and whether or not you believe china's potential crackdown on centralized trading natd matter, that's a driving factor. we've seen the bitcoin trade fall on these and bounce back. the other thing we're not talking about is whether or not if you are a bitcoin investor, would you have stayed invested in it if you saw a 20% draw down, a 30% draw down, a 40% draw down? there's a pain threshold for every investor out there maybe bitcoin investors have a higher pain threshold, for people knew to the market you may see a situation, if you see double digit percentage declines, people hit the stop loss button. >> and a high gain threshold thank you very much. let's turn to the broader markets. dow futures are surging once again this morning let's bring in michael purves from weeden & company.
thanks for joining us. >> good to be here >> we see dow futures indicating an open of 150 points up, we saw this yesterday and then closed lower on the day how should we think about this early morning rally? >> there were a lot of flar t s narratives ascribed to everything's quick reversal. everything opened strong, then the sort of quick mysterious reversal out of the blue people were ascribing narratives could it be bitcoin as you were talking about and so forth i think it's much simpler than that if you look at the relative strength i dex ndex on the s&p t was the highest level since 1996 what we have had over the last three, four weeks has been an incredible surge, a very stron market over the last several years. and, you know, sometimes you need one big trader to start something, to start saying hey, i'll buy protection and i'll nudge the vix up in due course,
then everything else follows i don't read anything -- what's different today than two weeks ago, three weeks ago, two months ago? nothing. there's nothing ugly from the earnings we got out of the banks. rates are still low. the dollar is behaving >> one breainteresting factor ih targets were being hit already that's one thing that had changed. the performance in the first couple of weeks was outstanding. you have altered your targets for the rest of the year based on a great start to the year or were you already thinking we have run everything up in the first two weeks, therefore it is time to take profits >> i suspect i will be taking it up >> why because performance is good or fundamentals have changed? >> because the fundamentals, not
that they're necessarily proechling but stproech i improving but staying together if rates and inflation do really accelerate, we see a big acceleration in gdp, we will see a first half explosion in the market as well that may set up an ugly second half of the year so i may not raise my target as this back drop evolves, i may. if it doesn't evolve, i will be confident that the market will put in another two, three, four years of strong returns. it comes down to whether the condition of stable rates, stable inflation can hold together against a back drop of decent to go earnings growth >> if we do see rates rise quickly in the second half of the year, inflation take off, how do you want to be positioned so hedge against that? by gold? >> gold is one thing i've been structurally bullish on gold for some time. you have to be very careful with
it it gets back to what rates are going up if nominal rates are going up but inflation is not going up, you don't want to be long gold if inflation is going up faster than the nominal rates go up, gold will explode. i think that's going to be powerful that's one area. there's all sorts of ways to play the broader inflation theme. i think if you zoom out and think about global equities, you have to be thinking that the world is normalizing with rates, the global gdp back drop is good, i would rather be long em, looking at japanese equities than looking at a tired u.s. stock market >> michael, thank you very much for joining us time for our top trending stories. landon has a look at what's buzzing today. >> i guess it wouldn't be trending if we didn't talk bitcoin. fans of the mavericks will be able to buy tickets with bitcoin
and ethereum the mavericks won't be the first team to accept cryptocurrency payments the kings started accepting bitcoin in 2014. >> again, it's still -- you have to -- there's such small divisions of a bitcoin to pay. these games are expensive, but you're talking tiny fractions of a bitcoin. it's quite complicated. >> and high transaction fees >> i wonder how many tickets the kings have sold with bitcoin, whether it's a pr stunt or if people are actually taking advantage of it. >> i'm with you, it's the hype a trending thing. >> kim kardashian and kanye west welcomed a daughter via surrogate. the reality star sharing the baby news on her website writing she's here along with the #momofthree. they have yet to announce the baby girl's name
>> this is awesome news. i have to say, completely passed me by that they were trying with a surrogate or pregnant with a surrogate. fabulous news. >> my bet is that the name doesn't begin with a k her other kids don't have names that begin with a k. >> i hope it's not southwest >> exactly how cold is it out there the world's coldest village is seeing record low temperatures so much so their digital thermometer broke. the russian village installed the thermometer last year to draw in tourists but it broke after it dropped to negative 62 degrees celsius. visitors and locals have been sharing photos and pictures on social media look at this, frozen eyelashes >> it's so brave but kudos to the other person standing in front of minus 62.
>> celsius >> yes >> i was trying to convert this. you would know you're the celsius guy >> you basically can't do a proper conversion because fahrenheit is such a terrible measure. it doesn't have a zero bound for freezing >> at some point cold is just cold thank you very much for that ge's cry for help, today's must reads coming up. as we head to break a check on u.s. equity futures they are pointing to a higher open the dow is up 165 points right now. we have more coming back on "worldwide exchange. this is a skyscraper whose elevators use iot data and ai to help thousands get to work safely and efficiently. this is not the cloud you know. this is the ibm cloud. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business. yours. ♪ ♪
welcome back a few analyst calls of note. ibm upgraded to overweight from underweight at barclays. the call is based on fundamentals and company-specific factors tax reform was not much of a factor shares up 2% barclays is downgrading hp dwoshgs ehpq from equal weight from overweight. shares of apple trading lower. longbow research downgraded the tech giant to neutral from buy. time for our top news stories. mine is general electric: cry for help it's a rolling train wreck of
expensive blunders in november john flannery said high losses in the power unit were unacceptable. on tuesday, ge quantified new after tax losses at ge capital at $6 billion, leaving flannery groping for new adjectives, he settled for deeply disappointing. from bad to worse. >> i spent so much time on the phone with so many people talking about this company yesterday that my battery died two times. stock ended the day down 3% despite these headlines and comments from ceo flannery that, you know, the potential for a breakup is on the table, including in the core industrial businesses of aviation, healthcare and power you would expect that to be welcomed news on the street. not so much. two things at play the first thing is they have pension obligations, more than $31 billion. they have all these other
liabilities including a surprise $15 billion worth of reserves that need to be built up over the next seven years that was five times greater than the street was expecting everybody is going can they actually break this company apart? can they spin these core businesses out if so, how can they do that without being strapped down with all these liabilities and all of the debt you talk to analysts on the street some of the parts numbers, from $16 to $18, you look at where the shares are trading now they're at 18 bucks. there's an expectation that breaking it apart would not create value >> a big selloff yesterday that's a criticism of ge, not your apple phone's battery we're approaching the top of the hour the team is getting ready for "squawk box. andrew is joining us >> i'm adding a story to your list not my own >> what? this is from the "wall street journal. do you see this piece? >> we haven't yet.
>> it's called the antitrust case against america's technology behemoths it's a fascinating look at google, apple and how much market share they have he makes a compelling argument not to break them up, but if you were to make an argument here's why. to the extent people are talking about this in washington and on wall street, it's fascinating the way he structures it and lays it out. we will talk more about that we'll also talk about bitcoin. bitcoin, bitcoin, this remarkable selloff what a roller coaster ride it's been we have some big-time bitcoin experts who will spend time with us this morning sort this through for us jason furman will join us. so much to talk to him about senator mike rounds on the jay powell confirmation hearings will join us senator jerry moran will join u talking about social media and
terror and the threat that took place in hawaii 48 hours ago still ahead on "worldwide exchange," investors focusing on earnings we're setting up your trading day in a couple minutes. your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered...
welcome back futures pointing higher, up 161 points on the dow. yesterday we were up over 200 andended the day lower joining us now is ellen zentner from morgan stanley. there was nothing yesterday in terms of economic data that could have been a smapark for te selloff. eventualhaven' recently the data has been strong >> we finished 2017 on a good note with a lot of tailwinds carrying us into 201 i'm seeing more and more of that early survey data in january are coming in with companies
confirming, despite the spotty reports here and there of we're giving one-time bonuses or raising the minimum wage for hiring workers, we are getting more and more companies saying -- 80% in our survey said that they will return it to shareholde shareholders only 20% said they would put it towards hiring more, increasing compensation, and some said increasing cap excapex. so maybe we don't get that accelerating wage growth or the capex on the back of the tax reform >> in light of some of that data coming in, what is your expectation this year for economic growth and beyond >> 2.4%, q4 to q4. that includes about 0.5% on gdp growth, a tailwind from the tax
reform not all of it was tax reform, some of it was tax cuts, but it provides a more positive back drop for business investment and for consumers. by february 15th all of us will be getting higher take-home pay. so there's a lot of positive impulse for 2018 if i were to look forward and at some point investors will look forward, you lose a lot of that positive impulse from fiscal policy and you get slower growth in 2019. >> you just had a big morgan stanley equities conference in london, what was your framing of the main questions investors have, particularly as it relates to u.s. equities and u.s. economy versus the rest of the world as they try to balance the portfolios for the year ahead. >> everyone is still trying to gauge is the fed going to do more or less than the three hikes they see this year the conversation kept coming back again and again to inflation. and this is one of the first times that regardless of whether
i'm at an equities conference or sitting down with fixed income clients, they all have the same question it centers around inflation, where is it? that's why they're so concerned with what will companies do with the money? we all know share buybacks, dividend increases, m&a can increase share prices. investors are looking for companies to do something like returning it to the worker we're not seeing clear signs of that that would put more upward remember sure on wages and also might result in a fed hiking rates faster what is your forecast for the fed? >> three hikes this year, march, june, september. by september our global head of rates strategy has a completely flat yield curve and that is where the conversation on the fed gets difficult. they're fairly split between those who believe it would be a red flag for the economy and those who believe it's not a problem, we should be in a flat yield curve world. >> ellen, always great to see
another day, another rally dow futures indicating a triple digit gain at the open, but it's really a do-over after yesterday's big market rally fizzled late in the session. the selloff in bitcoin getting worse. traders waking up to red arrows again for all the major cryptocurrencies, though i believe they're off their lows. and shutdown showdown. the clock ticking for congress to pass a spending bill and negotiations just hit a major snag it's wednesday, january 17, 2018 sd "squawk box" begins right now.
♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equity futures wh futures. what a ride yesterday. the markets shooting up to a 283-point gain for the dow, then giving it all back >> rattled >> ten points down >> down 295. >> that's something to watch up 300 points we were watching with anticipation, down by that much is also something to watch. >> has to be like a fever breaking for people who are still not in >> now it's time to get in >> every d